Game plans
Monday, October 26
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Pelicans at Grizzlies
How the Pelicans beat the Grizzlies
- AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Pelicans defense there ranks 28th (47.9% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
How the Grizzlies beat the Pelicans
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
| Zone | NOP offense | MEM defense | MEM offense | NOP defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 62.8% (29th) | 68.4% (24th) | 64.1% (25th) | 66.7% (18th) |
| Paint | 38.0% (30th) | 44.9% (21st) | 45.9% (8th) | 47.9% (28th) |
| Midrange | 33.7% (30th) | 43.1% (24th) | 40.3% (19th) | 40.9% (12th) |
| Corner 3 | 39.2% (9th) | 39.6% (23rd) | 36.5% (27th) | 37.0% (5th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 33.2% (26th) | 35.2% (18th) | 34.8% (18th) | 34.3% (12th) |
02Matchups on Mon, Oct 26
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How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.