Game plans
Thursday, October 22
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Timberwolves at Heat
How the Timberwolves beat the Heat
- Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
How the Heat beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Run and make them keep up.
| Zone | MIN offense | MIA defense | MIA offense | MIN defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 67.4% (8th) | 65.3% (11th) | 65.1% (20th) | 62.4% (3rd) |
| Paint | 44.2% (16th) | 44.8% (20th) | 44.2% (17th) | 42.9% (8th) |
| Midrange | 42.1% (14th) | 39.5% (4th) | 37.8% (26th) | 40.0% (9th) |
| Corner 3 | 38.5% (14th) | 39.0% (18th) | 37.6% (19th) | 40.7% (26th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 36.5% (3rd) | 34.7% (16th) | 35.6% (9th) | 33.9% (4th) |
02Matchups on Thu, Oct 22
- Cavaliers at 76ers
How the Cavaliers beat the 76ers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).
How the 76ers beat the Cavaliers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- Nuggets at Thunder
How the Nuggets beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
How the Thunder beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Thunder shoot 67.2% at the rim (10th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.