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Game plans · Wednesday, January 6

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Bucks at Rockets

How the Bucks beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.

How the Rockets beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (38.5% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)36.4% (26th)

Matchups on Wed, Jan 6

5 games
  • Jazz at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at 76ers7:30 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Trail Blazers grab 31.3% of their misses (2nd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pelicans grab 27.0% of their misses (8th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Spurs8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Spurs beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Warriors10:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Warriors allow 43.1% there (26th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Warriors defense there ranks 27th (40.9% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.