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Game plans · Saturday, December 19

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Bucks at Grizzlies

How the Bucks beat the Grizzlies

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the rimThe Bucks shoot 68.7% at the rim (5th), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Bucks defense there ranks 3rd (41.1% allowed).
  5. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).

How the Grizzlies beat the Bucks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 23rd (39.6% allowed).
  3. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Bucks allow 36.4% there (26th of 30).
  5. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMIL offenseMEM defenseMEM offenseMIL defense
At the rim68.7% (5th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)68.5% (25th)
Paint42.7% (23rd)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)41.1% (3rd)
Midrange42.3% (12th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)42.0% (15th)
Corner 342.9% (2nd)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)41.1% (29th)
Above-the-break 336.9% (2nd)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)36.4% (26th)

Matchups on Sat, Dec 19

4 games
  • Trail Blazers at Hornets6:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Lakers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.