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Game plans · Tuesday, December 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Grizzlies at Hornets

How the Grizzlies beat the Hornets

  1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 18th (35.2% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).

How the Hornets beat the Grizzlies

  1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Hornets defense there ranks 11th (43.8% allowed).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseCHA defenseCHA offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)65.1% (9th)64.8% (23rd)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)43.8% (11th)42.8% (22nd)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)39.7% (6th)35.8% (29th)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)38.8% (16th)42.8% (3rd)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)35.1% (17th)36.3% (5th)35.2% (18th)

Matchups on Tue, Dec 15

2 games
  • Spurs at Cavaliers8:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Trail Blazers11:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.