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Game plans · Saturday, March 28

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Grizzlies at Rockets

How the Grizzlies beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 21st (44.9% allowed).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  5. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.

How the Rockets beat the Grizzlies

  1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  3. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).
  5. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Rockets defense there ranks 15th (44.1% allowed).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneMEM offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseMEM defense
At the rim64.1% (25th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)68.4% (24th)
Paint45.9% (8th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)44.9% (21st)
Midrange40.3% (19th)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)43.1% (24th)
Corner 336.5% (27th)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)39.6% (23rd)
Above-the-break 334.8% (18th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)35.2% (18th)

Matchups on Sat, Mar 28

6 games
  • Spurs at BucksFinal

    How the Spurs beat the Bucks

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Bucks allow 41.1% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).

    How the Bucks beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at HornetsFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The 76ers defense there ranks 3rd (33.8% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).

    How the Hornets beat the 76ers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at HawksFinal

    How the Kings beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Hawks defense there ranks 18th (44.2% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at GrizzliesFinal

    How the Bulls beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Bulls defense there ranks 6th (42.4% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at SunsFinal

    How the Jazz beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Suns beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Jazz allow 36.4% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.