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Game plans · Friday, January 29

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pacers at Celtics

How the Pacers beat the Celtics

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Pacers defense there ranks 8th (34.2% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

How the Celtics beat the Pacers

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Celtics shots come from midrange (8th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneIND offenseBOS defenseBOS offenseIND defense
At the rim64.1% (26th)64.8% (7th)70.5% (2nd)66.3% (17th)
Paint45.0% (15th)41.4% (4th)48.2% (3rd)47.1% (27th)
Midrange39.8% (22nd)42.5% (21st)39.9% (21st)45.4% (30th)
Corner 337.2% (23rd)36.2% (2nd)41.8% (4th)39.4% (22nd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (15th)35.7% (24th)35.6% (10th)34.2% (8th)

Matchups on Fri, Jan 29

6 games
  • Cavaliers at Raptors7:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 4th (62.6% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Celtics

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    How the Celtics beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Clippers shoot 41.6% from the corners (5th), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Clippers shots come in the paint (6th most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.9% of Nets shots come from above the break (6th most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Mavericks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).

    How the Rockets beat the Magic

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Timberwolves9:30 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 4th (33.9% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.