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Game plans · Saturday, January 9

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pacers at Jazz

How the Pacers beat the Jazz

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
  3. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

How the Jazz beat the Pacers

  1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
  3. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneIND offenseUTA defenseUTA offenseIND defense
At the rim64.1% (26th)72.0% (30th)66.5% (14th)66.3% (17th)
Paint45.0% (15th)48.8% (30th)47.6% (5th)47.1% (27th)
Midrange39.8% (22nd)44.1% (28th)38.8% (25th)45.4% (30th)
Corner 337.2% (23rd)39.2% (21st)38.1% (16th)39.4% (22nd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (15th)36.4% (27th)32.9% (29th)34.2% (8th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 9

6 games
  • Nuggets at Cavaliers5:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Nets6:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Warriors8:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Clippers defense there ranks 22nd (35.6% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.