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Game plans · Sunday, December 28

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pacers at Rockets

How the Pacers beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.

How the Rockets beat the Pacers

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneIND offenseHOU defenseHOU offenseIND defense
At the rim64.1% (26th)65.3% (12th)65.8% (16th)66.3% (17th)
Paint45.0% (15th)44.1% (15th)47.2% (6th)47.1% (27th)
Midrange39.8% (22nd)39.1% (2nd)40.2% (20th)45.4% (30th)
Corner 337.2% (23rd)38.5% (12th)37.3% (21st)39.4% (22nd)
Above-the-break 335.1% (15th)34.1% (6th)36.1% (7th)34.2% (8th)

Matchups on Sun, Dec 28

6 games
  • Warriors at RaptorsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Raptors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    How the Raptors beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Raptors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at ThunderFinal

    How the 76ers beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).

    How the Thunder beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at WizardsFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 24th (43.1% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Wizards defense there ranks 2nd (40.6% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Trail BlazersFinal

    How the Celtics beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Trail Blazers play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at ClippersFinal

    How the Pistons beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at LakersFinal

    How the Kings beat the Lakers

    1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Lakers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.