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Game plans · Monday, January 25

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Rockets at Spurs

How the Rockets beat the Spurs

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Spurs beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Spurs defense there ranks 7th (42.5% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseSAS defenseSAS offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)62.7% (5th)67.1% (12th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)42.5% (7th)45.7% (10th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)42.5% (22nd)43.6% (7th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)34.6% (1st)38.9% (12th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)35.4% (19th)34.4% (20th)34.1% (6th)

Matchups on Mon, Jan 25

8 games
  • Raptors at Celtics7:00 PM ET

    How the Raptors beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Raptors defense there ranks 2nd (33.7% allowed).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).

    How the Celtics beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Celtics defense there ranks 7th (64.8% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Hornets7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Hornets beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the 76ers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe 76ers play at 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes (15th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Nets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Nets at 96.2 (25th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. AttackAttack the paint21.9% of Heat shots come in the paint (5th most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    How the Bulls beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Timberwolves at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Timberwolves beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    How the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    How the Pelicans beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Nuggets9:30 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Kings shoot 68.2% at the rim (6th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    How the Nuggets beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.