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Game plans · Friday, January 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Rockets at Grizzlies

How the Rockets beat the Grizzlies

  1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
  3. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
  4. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Grizzlies allow 44.9% there (21st of 30).
  5. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Rockets defense there ranks 15th (44.1% allowed).

How the Grizzlies beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 21st (44.9% allowed).
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  5. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseMEM defenseMEM offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)68.4% (24th)64.1% (25th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)44.9% (21st)45.9% (8th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)43.1% (24th)40.3% (19th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)39.6% (23rd)36.5% (27th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)35.2% (18th)34.8% (18th)34.1% (6th)

Matchups on Fri, Jan 15

8 games
  • Warriors at Hawks7:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Hawks

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Hawks beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Suns

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Heat at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Heat beat the Raptors

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).

    How the Raptors beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (40.1% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Jazz at Thunder8:00 PM ET

    How the Jazz beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Thunder beat the Jazz

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).

    How the Rockets beat the Wizards

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Wizards rank 30th on the defensive glass (70.2%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Wizards at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.6% of Trail Blazers shots come from above the break (5th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Clippers beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Clippers shoot 69.4% at the rim (3rd), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.