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Game plans · Saturday, January 9

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Rockets at Heat

How the Rockets beat the Heat

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

How the Heat beat the Rockets

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Heat defense there ranks 20th (44.8% allowed).
  4. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)34.1% (6th)

Matchups on Sat, Jan 9

6 games
  • Nuggets at Cavaliers5:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Nets6:00 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Warriors8:30 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    How the Warriors beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Warriors play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 14th (34.5% allowed).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Hornets grab 30.5% of their misses (4th) and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Clippers10:30 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Clippers beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Clippers defense there ranks 22nd (35.6% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.