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Game plans

Thursday, November 19

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Rockets at Heat

How the Rockets beat the Heat

  1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

How the Heat beat the Rockets

  1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  3. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Heat defense there ranks 20th (44.8% allowed).
  4. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseMIA defenseMIA offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)65.3% (11th)65.1% (20th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)44.8% (20th)44.2% (17th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)39.5% (4th)37.8% (26th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)39.0% (18th)37.6% (19th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)34.7% (16th)35.6% (9th)34.1% (6th)

02Matchups on Thu, Nov 19

4 games
  • Warriors at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Grizzlies allow 68.4% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.4% of Warriors shots come from the corners (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 39.6% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Bucks8:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 19th (39.0% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Bucks give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 26th (40.7% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Spurs8:00 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Clippers play at 95.6 possessions per 48 minutes (28th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Spurs beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Clippers at 95.6 (28th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.