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Game plans · Wednesday, December 17

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
at

Rockets at Kings

How the Rockets beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Rockets shoot 36.1% from above the break (7th), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Rockets defense there ranks 15th (44.1% allowed).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Zach LaVineLaVine (19.2 points per game): best from the corners (45% on 55 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%). 37% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

How the Kings beat the Rockets

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Kings defense there ranks 29th (48.7% allowed).
  3. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Durant, Sengun, Smith, Thompson and Sheppard share the floor (272 min), they allow 123.1 per 100, against 114.2 for the team: attack it.
  4. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneHOU offenseSAC defenseSAC offenseHOU defense
At the rim65.8% (16th)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)65.3% (12th)
Paint47.2% (6th)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)44.1% (15th)
Midrange40.2% (20th)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)39.1% (2nd)
Corner 337.3% (21st)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)38.5% (12th)
Above-the-break 336.1% (7th)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)34.1% (6th)

Matchups on Wed, Dec 17

2 games
  • Cavaliers at BullsFinal

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Timberwolves

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Grizzlies

    1. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Ty JeromeJerome (19.7 points per game): best in the paint (53% on 64 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%). 40% on the left side, 47% on the right; push him left.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.