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Game plans · Tuesday, March 9

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Pistons at Pacers

How the Pistons beat the Pacers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
  2. AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Pacers at 100.3 (8th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Pacers beat the Pistons

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Pacers play at 100.3 possessions per 48 minutes (8th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDET offenseIND defenseIND offenseDET defense
At the rim66.3% (15th)66.3% (17th)64.1% (26th)61.9% (2nd)
Paint42.0% (24th)47.1% (27th)45.0% (15th)43.8% (12th)
Midrange41.9% (15th)45.4% (30th)39.8% (22nd)39.7% (5th)
Corner 337.3% (20th)39.4% (22nd)37.2% (23rd)38.5% (11th)
Above-the-break 334.8% (19th)34.2% (8th)35.1% (15th)33.1% (1st)

Matchups on Tue, Mar 9

7 games
  • Suns at Magic7:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Suns play at 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes (24th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bucks at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Bucks beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Bucks shoot 42.9% from the corners (2nd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Bucks shoot 36.9% from above the break (2nd), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Nets defense there ranks 30th (42.3% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Cavaliers at Pistons8:00 PM ET

    How the Cavaliers beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    How the Pistons beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Bulls8:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Bulls

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Bulls play at 101.9 possessions per 48 minutes (2nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Bulls defense there ranks 29th (36.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Mavericks8:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    How the Mavericks beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 24th (45.5% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Wizards at Spurs8:00 PM ET

    How the Wizards beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    How the Spurs beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Wizards allow 40.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rim32.3% of Spurs shots come at the rim (7th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Warriors11:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.