Game plans · Wednesday, October 29
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Pistons at Jazz
How the Pistons beat the Jazz
- AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Pistons defense there ranks 12th (43.8% allowed).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st), and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paint20.8% of Pistons shots come in the paint (10th most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Pistons
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Pistons force turnovers on 14.1% of plays (1st) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
| Zone | DET offense | UTA defense | UTA offense | DET defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 66.3% (15th) | 72.0% (30th) | 66.5% (14th) | 61.9% (2nd) |
| Paint | 42.0% (24th) | 48.8% (30th) | 47.6% (5th) | 43.8% (12th) |
| Midrange | 41.9% (15th) | 44.1% (28th) | 38.8% (25th) | 39.7% (5th) |
| Corner 3 | 37.3% (20th) | 39.2% (21st) | 38.1% (16th) | 38.5% (11th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 34.8% (19th) | 36.4% (27th) | 32.9% (29th) | 33.1% (1st) |
Matchups on Wed, Oct 29
- Rockets at Raptors
How the Rockets beat the Raptors
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Rockets defense there ranks 12th (65.3% allowed).
How the Raptors beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Raptors defense there ranks 19th (44.5% allowed).
- Cavaliers at Celtics
How the Cavaliers beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (36.1% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Celtics beat the Cavaliers
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- Magic at Pistons
How the Magic beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Magic
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
- AttackAttack the rim36.0% of Pistons shots come at the rim (3rd most), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).
- Hawks at Nets
How the Hawks beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
- TurnoversPressure the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
How the Nets beat the Hawks
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Hawks force turnovers on 13.2% of plays (6th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
- Kings at Bulls
How the Kings beat the Bulls
- AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Bulls at 101.9 (2nd). Make it a half-court game.
How the Bulls beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 332.3% of Bulls shots come from above the break (9th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- Pacers at Mavericks
How the Pacers beat the Mavericks
- AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
How the Mavericks beat the Pacers
- AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paint21.5% of Mavericks shots come in the paint (8th most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
- Pelicans at Nuggets
How the Pelicans beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Nuggets beat the Pelicans
- AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- Trail Blazers at Jazz
How the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Jazz allow 72.0% there (30th of 30).
How the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers
- TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Jazz give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
- Lakers at Timberwolves
How the Lakers beat the Timberwolves
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Timberwolves at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
How the Timberwolves beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Timberwolves defense there ranks 8th (42.9% allowed).
- Grizzlies at Suns
How the Grizzlies beat the Suns
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Suns beat the Grizzlies
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Suns grab 28.9% of their misses (7th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Suns defense there ranks 14th (44.1% allowed).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.