Game plans · Thursday, February 18
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Nuggets at Lakers
How the Nuggets beat the Lakers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Nuggets defense there ranks 22nd (45.3% allowed).
How the Lakers beat the Nuggets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the rimThe Lakers shoot 73.4% at the rim (1st), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paintThe Lakers shoot 48.8% in the paint (1st), and the Nuggets allow 45.3% there (22nd of 30).
| Zone | DEN offense | LAL defense | LAL offense | DEN defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 66.7% (13th) | 70.5% (29th) | 73.4% (1st) | 69.1% (27th) |
| Paint | 48.4% (2nd) | 43.0% (9th) | 48.8% (1st) | 45.3% (22nd) |
| Midrange | 44.8% (3rd) | 44.7% (29th) | 44.4% (5th) | 40.4% (10th) |
| Corner 3 | 44.2% (1st) | 37.7% (8th) | 34.9% (29th) | 36.5% (4th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 37.8% (1st) | 34.2% (10th) | 36.3% (6th) | 34.2% (11th) |
Matchups on Thu, Feb 18
- Spurs at Timberwolves
How the Spurs beat the Timberwolves
- AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
- Celtics at Grizzlies
How the Celtics beat the Grizzlies
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Grizzlies at 100.8 (5th). Make it a half-court game.
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
How the Grizzlies beat the Celtics
- TempoPush the paceThe Grizzlies play at 100.8 possessions per 48 minutes (5th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Grizzlies rank 29th on the defensive glass (70.9%).
- Rockets at Lakers
How the Rockets beat the Lakers
- AttackAttack midrange12.8% of Rockets shots come from midrange (2nd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Lakers beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- Take awayTake away the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most) and they make 47.2% (6th). The Lakers defense there ranks 9th (43.0% allowed).
- Pacers at Trail Blazers
How the Pacers beat the Trail Blazers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).
How the Trail Blazers beat the Pacers
- Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.