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Game plans

Sunday, November 22

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Mavericks at Spurs

How the Mavericks beat the Spurs

  1. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
  2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

How the Spurs beat the Mavericks

  1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Spurs shoot 43.6% from midrange (7th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Spurs shoot 45.7% in the paint (10th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseSAS defenseSAS offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)62.7% (5th)67.1% (12th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)42.5% (7th)45.7% (10th)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)42.5% (22nd)43.6% (7th)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)34.6% (1st)38.9% (12th)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)35.4% (19th)34.4% (20th)34.2% (9th)

02Matchups on Sun, Nov 22

7 games
  • Pistons at Hawks3:30 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Hawks

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Hawks at 100.7 (7th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    How the Hawks beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Hawks play at 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes (7th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at Heat6:00 PM ET

    How the Thunder beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Thunder play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Thunder at 98.5 (16th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Magic at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Wizards

    1. AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Wizards allow 68.5% there (26th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Magic defense there ranks 18th (42.1% allowed).

    How the Wizards beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Wizards shoot 67.3% at the rim (9th), and the Magic allow 67.5% there (21st of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Bulls7:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Nuggets shoot 37.8% from above the break (1st), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Nuggets shoot 44.8% from midrange (3rd), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Bulls beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim36.1% of Bulls shots come at the rim (2nd most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Jazz7:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.4% of Mavericks shots come from midrange (4th most), and the Jazz allow 44.1% there (28th of 30).

    How the Jazz beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pacers at Knicks8:00 PM ET

    How the Pacers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Pacers defense there ranks 22nd (39.4% allowed).

    How the Knicks beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Knicks shoot 44.9% from midrange (2nd), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Warriors8:30 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Warriors allow 47.0% there (26th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).

    How the Warriors beat the Celtics

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 336.3% of Warriors shots come from above the break (3rd most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Warriors defense there ranks 13th (34.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.