Game plans
Thursday, March 26
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Mavericks at Bucks
How the Mavericks beat the Bucks
- Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Mavericks defense there ranks 6th (37.2% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Bucks at 96.8 (23rd). Run and make them keep up.
How the Bucks beat the Mavericks
- AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Bucks play at 96.8 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in pace), the Mavericks at 101.1 (4th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
| Zone | DAL offense | MIL defense | MIL offense | DAL defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 64.6% (24th) | 68.5% (25th) | 68.7% (5th) | 66.2% (16th) |
| Paint | 45.4% (11th) | 41.1% (3rd) | 42.7% (23rd) | 45.5% (24th) |
| Midrange | 39.4% (24th) | 42.0% (15th) | 42.3% (12th) | 42.7% (23rd) |
| Corner 3 | 37.1% (25th) | 41.1% (29th) | 42.9% (2nd) | 37.2% (6th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 33.2% (28th) | 36.4% (26th) | 36.9% (2nd) | 34.2% (9th) |
02Matchups on Thu, Mar 26
- Knicks at Hornets
How the Knicks beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Knicks defense there ranks 21st (35.5% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
How the Hornets beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Hornets defense there ranks 16th (38.8% allowed).
- Pelicans at Pistons
How the Pelicans beat the Pistons
- GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Pelicans
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Pistons grab 30.9% of their misses (3rd), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- Kings at Magic
How the Kings beat the Magic
- AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
How the Magic beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the rim32.6% of Magic shots come at the rim (6th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Magic defense there ranks 23rd (45.3% allowed).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.