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Game plans · Saturday, November 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Mavericks at Timberwolves

How the Mavericks beat the Timberwolves

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

How the Timberwolves beat the Mavericks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneDAL offenseMIN defenseMIN offenseDAL defense
At the rim64.6% (24th)62.4% (3rd)67.4% (8th)66.2% (16th)
Paint45.4% (11th)42.9% (8th)44.2% (16th)45.5% (24th)
Midrange39.4% (24th)40.0% (9th)42.1% (14th)42.7% (23rd)
Corner 337.1% (25th)40.7% (26th)38.5% (14th)37.2% (6th)
Above-the-break 333.2% (28th)33.9% (4th)36.5% (3rd)34.2% (9th)

Matchups on Sat, Nov 15

5 games
  • Grizzlies at CavaliersFinal

    How the Grizzlies beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 13th (44.0% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Thunder at HornetsFinal

    How the Thunder beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Thunder defense there ranks 23rd (35.6% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd), and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    How the Hornets beat the Thunder

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Thunder force turnovers on 14.0% of plays (2nd) and the Hornets give it away on 12.8% (24th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Raptors at PacersFinal

    How the Raptors beat the Pacers

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.

    How the Pacers beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Pacers defense there ranks 17th (66.3% allowed).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Lakers at BucksFinal

    How the Lakers beat the Bucks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Tyler HerroHerro (20.5 points per game): best in the paint (58% on 165 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (36%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.4% of Bucks shots come from the corners (3rd most) and they make 42.9% (2nd). The Lakers defense there ranks 8th (37.7% allowed).

    How the Bucks beat the Lakers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
    2. AttackAttack midrange12.6% of Bucks shots come from midrange (3rd most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at TimberwolvesFinal

    How the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.