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Game plans · Wednesday, January 27

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Cavaliers at Pelicans

How the Cavaliers beat the Pelicans

  1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
  2. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

How the Pelicans beat the Cavaliers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  2. AttackAttack the corner 3The Pelicans shoot 39.2% from the corners (9th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCLE offenseNOP defenseNOP offenseCLE defense
At the rim67.2% (11th)66.7% (18th)62.8% (29th)62.6% (4th)
Paint47.8% (4th)47.9% (28th)38.0% (30th)44.0% (13th)
Midrange44.5% (4th)40.9% (12th)33.7% (30th)42.4% (20th)
Corner 337.6% (18th)37.0% (5th)39.2% (9th)40.1% (25th)
Above-the-break 335.4% (11th)34.3% (12th)33.2% (26th)36.1% (25th)

Matchups on Wed, Jan 27

9 games
  • Pistons at Cavaliers7:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Pistons

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Kings at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Kings beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Kings

    1. AttackAttack the rim33.4% of 76ers shots come at the rim (5th most), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The 76ers defense there ranks 5th (42.4% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Clippers at Celtics7:30 PM ET

    How the Clippers beat the Celtics

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Clippers defense there ranks 22nd (35.6% allowed).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).

    How the Celtics beat the Clippers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon IngramIngram (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (52% on 93 shots, league 39%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Clippers allow 35.6% there (22nd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).

    How the Nets beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rim30.7% of Nets shots come at the rim (10th most), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Raptors7:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Raptors

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
    2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Mavericks defense there ranks 16th (66.2% allowed).

    How the Raptors beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint20.9% of Raptors shots come in the paint (9th most), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hornets at Spurs8:00 PM ET

    How the Hornets beat the Spurs

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Spurs at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Spurs beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Spurs defense there ranks 19th (35.4% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Spurs play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pelicans at Rockets8:30 PM ET

    How the Pelicans beat the Rockets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
    2. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st) and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).

    How the Rockets beat the Pelicans

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Rockets grab 34.8% of their misses (1st), and the Pelicans rank 28th on the defensive glass (71.4%).
    2. AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Timberwolves9:30 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 3The Nuggets shoot 44.2% from the corners (1st), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th), and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Trail Blazers force turnovers on 13.0% of plays (7th) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Warriors force turnovers on 13.5% of plays (4th) and the Trail Blazers give it away on 14.0% (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Warriors allow 40.9% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.