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Game plans

Monday, November 16

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Cavaliers at Hawks

How the Cavaliers beat the Hawks

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

How the Hawks beat the Cavaliers

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Hawks shoot 36.4% from above the break (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the corner 311.7% of Hawks shots come from the corners (8th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCLE offenseATL defenseATL offenseCLE defense
At the rim67.2% (11th)65.2% (10th)64.9% (21st)62.6% (4th)
Paint47.8% (4th)44.2% (18th)45.0% (14th)44.0% (13th)
Midrange44.5% (4th)42.0% (17th)42.3% (13th)42.4% (20th)
Corner 337.6% (18th)38.1% (10th)38.9% (11th)40.1% (25th)
Above-the-break 335.4% (11th)34.6% (15th)36.4% (4th)36.1% (25th)

02Matchups on Mon, Nov 16

8 games
  • Magic at Celtics7:00 PM ET

    How the Magic beat the Celtics

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).

    How the Celtics beat the Magic

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Magic allow 45.3% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Cavaliers7:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).

    How the Cavaliers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Grizzlies at Wizards7:00 PM ET

    How the Grizzlies beat the Wizards

    1. Take awayTake away midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most) and they make 43.4% (8th). The Grizzlies defense there ranks 24th (43.1% allowed).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Wizards give it away on 13.2% (26th of 30).

    How the Wizards beat the Grizzlies

    1. AttackAttack midrange12.1% of Wizards shots come from midrange (5th most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Wizards defense there ranks 2nd (40.6% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • 76ers at Nets7:30 PM ET

    How the 76ers beat the Nets

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).

    How the Nets beat the 76ers

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe 76ers force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Nets play at 96.2 possessions per 48 minutes (25th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Rockets at Heat7:30 PM ET

    How the Rockets beat the Heat

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Rockets play at 95.2 possessions per 48 minutes (29th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).

    How the Heat beat the Rockets

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Trail Blazers at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.2% of Trail Blazers shots come from the corners (5th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Trail Blazers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Warriors beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Warriors

    1. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Warriors allow 67.8% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Suns at Nuggets9:00 PM ET

    How the Suns beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).

    How the Nuggets beat the Suns

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.