Game plans
Tuesday, October 20
How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.
01Plan any matchup
Hornets at Nets
How the Hornets beat the Nets
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Hornets shoot 42.8% from the corners (3rd), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most), and the Nets allow 36.4% there (28th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Michael Porter Jr.Porter (24.2 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 227 shots, league 66%), worst from the corners (32%, league 39%).
How the Nets beat the Hornets
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 28th (36.4% allowed).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
| Zone | CHA offense | BKN defense | BKN offense | CHA defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 64.8% (23rd) | 67.0% (19th) | 63.4% (27th) | 65.1% (9th) |
| Paint | 42.8% (22nd) | 46.6% (25th) | 40.1% (27th) | 43.8% (11th) |
| Midrange | 35.8% (29th) | 41.2% (13th) | 36.8% (28th) | 39.7% (6th) |
| Corner 3 | 42.8% (3rd) | 42.3% (30th) | 36.8% (26th) | 38.8% (16th) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 36.3% (5th) | 36.4% (28th) | 33.2% (27th) | 35.1% (17th) |
02Matchups on Tue, Oct 20
- Celtics at Pistons
How the Celtics beat the Pistons
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Make it a half-court game.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Pistons defense there ranks 1st (33.1% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- 76ers at Knicks
How the 76ers beat the Knicks
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
- Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The 76ers defense there ranks 20th (39.1% allowed).
How the Knicks beat the 76ers
- GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the 76ers rank 26th on the defensive glass (72.5%).
- TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the 76ers at 98.8 (15th). Make it a half-court game.
- Thunder at Spurs
How the Thunder beat the Spurs
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Thunder shoot 48.1% from midrange (1st), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
How the Spurs beat the Thunder
- Key scorerKey scorer: Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderGilgeous-Alexander (31.1 points per game): best from midrange (54% on 332 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (39%, league 35%).
- AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Thunder allow 39.9% there (24th of 30).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.