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Game plans

Friday, April 17

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Hornets at Magic

How the Hornets beat the Magic

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
  2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Magic beat the Hornets

  1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
  2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Brandon MillerMiller (20.2 points per game): best from the corners (42% on 71 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (37%, league 42%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneCHA offenseORL defenseORL offenseCHA defense
At the rim64.8% (23rd)67.5% (21st)65.4% (19th)65.1% (9th)
Paint42.8% (22nd)45.3% (23rd)40.3% (26th)43.8% (11th)
Midrange35.8% (29th)42.1% (18th)43.0% (10th)39.7% (6th)
Corner 342.8% (3rd)38.5% (13th)38.4% (15th)38.8% (16th)
Above-the-break 336.3% (5th)34.2% (7th)32.6% (30th)35.1% (17th)

02Matchups on Fri, Apr 17

2 games
  • Hornets at MagicFinal

    How the Hornets beat the Magic

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Paolo BancheroBanchero (22.2 points per game): best from the corners (44% on 52 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (35%, league 44%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Hornets play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Magic at 99.3 (12th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Magic beat the Hornets

    1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 337.3% of Hornets shots come from above the break (2nd most) and they make 36.3% (5th). The Magic defense there ranks 7th (34.2% allowed).
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Magic play at 99.3 possessions per 48 minutes (12th in pace), the Hornets at 96.1 (26th). Run and make them keep up.

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Warriors at SunsFinal

    How the Warriors beat the Suns

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd) and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the rimThe Warriors shoot 68.9% at the rim (4th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).

    How the Suns beat the Warriors

    1. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Suns force turnovers on 13.9% of plays (3rd), and the Warriors give it away on 13.3% (27th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Stephen CurryCurry (26.6 points per game): best from midrange (52% on 91 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (68%, league 66%).

    2025-26 so far

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.