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Game plans · Monday, January 4

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Suns

How the Celtics beat the Suns

  1. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
  2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
  3. Key scorerKey scorer: Devin BookerBooker (26.1 points per game): best from midrange (46% on 314 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (33%, league 35%).
  4. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Make it a half-court game.

How the Suns beat the Celtics

  1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
  2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
  3. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Suns defense there ranks 5th (34.0% allowed).
  4. AttackAttack midrange11.7% of Suns shots come from midrange (6th most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  5. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offensePHX defensePHX offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)67.9% (23rd)65.8% (17th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)44.1% (14th)43.7% (19th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)42.0% (16th)42.3% (11th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)36.4% (3rd)39.6% (7th)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)34.0% (5th)35.1% (13th)35.7% (24th)

Matchups on Mon, Jan 4

6 games
  • Bulls at Pacers7:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Pacers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Pascal SiakamSiakam (24.0 points per game): best in the paint (47% on 330 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (33%, league 42%). 34% on the left side, 43% on the right; push him left.
    2. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Pacers allow 39.4% there (22nd of 30).

    How the Pacers beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Bulls allow 43.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Hawks at 76ers7:00 PM ET

    How the Hawks beat the 76ers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jaylen BrownBrown (28.7 points per game): best in the paint (50% on 434 shots, league 44%), worst from midrange (40%, league 42%).

    How the 76ers beat the Hawks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Jalen JohnsonJohnson (22.5 points per game): best at the rim (69% on 397 shots, league 66%), worst in the paint (42%, league 44%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Pelicans8:00 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Pelicans

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).

    How the Pelicans beat the Mavericks

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Cooper FlaggFlagg (21.0 points per game): best in the paint (46% on 360 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (30%, league 35%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Celtics at Suns9:00 PM ET

    How the Celtics beat the Suns

    1. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
    2. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th), and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).

    How the Suns beat the Celtics

    1. GlassFinish possessions: box outThe Celtics grab 29.2% of their misses (6th) and the Suns rank 27th on the defensive glass (71.9%).
    2. AttackAttack the above-the-break 334.9% of Suns shots come from above the break (4th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Jazz9:00 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Jazz

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most) and they make 47.6% (5th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    How the Jazz beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the corner 311.9% of Jazz shots come from the corners (7th most), and the Nets allow 42.3% there (30th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack the paint22.8% of Jazz shots come in the paint (3rd most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Knicks at Trail Blazers10:00 PM ET

    How the Knicks beat the Trail Blazers

    1. GlassCrash the offensive glassThe Knicks grab 29.3% of their misses (5th), and the Trail Blazers rank 25th on the defensive glass (72.7%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Knicks play at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes (26th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Knicks

    1. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Anunoby, Bridges, Brunson, Towns and McBride share the floor (91 min), they allow 129.1 per 100, against 114.1 for the team: attack it.
    2. Take awayTake away the corner 313.6% of Knicks shots come from the corners (2nd most) and they make 41.6% (6th). The Trail Blazers defense there ranks 19th (39.0% allowed).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.