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Game plans · Tuesday, December 15

How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.

Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Kings

How the Celtics beat the Kings

  1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
  2. AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Kings allow 69.8% there (28th of 30).
  3. AttackAttack the paintThe Celtics shoot 48.2% in the paint (3rd), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
  4. Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Celtics defense there ranks 4th (41.4% allowed).
  5. AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Celtics shots come from midrange (8th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).

How the Kings beat the Celtics

  1. AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  2. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Kings defense there ranks 30th (37.6% allowed).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Kings play at 98.5 possessions per 48 minutes (16th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offenseSAC defenseSAC offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)69.8% (28th)68.2% (6th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)48.7% (29th)45.7% (9th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)43.7% (27th)41.8% (16th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)39.0% (17th)35.1% (28th)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)37.6% (30th)33.7% (25th)35.7% (24th)

Matchups on Tue, Dec 15

2 games
  • Spurs at Cavaliers8:00 PM ET

    How the Spurs beat the Cavaliers

    1. AttackAttack the corner 313.9% of Spurs shots come from the corners (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Spurs

    1. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Spurs allow 42.5% there (22nd of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nuggets at Trail Blazers11:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Trail Blazers

    1. TempoSlow it downThe Nuggets play at 97.7 possessions per 48 minutes (20th in pace), the Trail Blazers at 99.8 (9th). Make it a half-court game.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Deni AvdijaAvdija (24.2 points per game): best in the paint (42% on 220 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (31%, league 35%).

    How the Trail Blazers beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim33.5% of Trail Blazers shots come at the rim (4th most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.