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Game plans

Saturday, November 14

How each team beats its opponent: the zones to attack, what to take away, the lineup to target, the key scorer's weak spots, and the tempo and glass edges.

01Plan any matchup

Based on 2025-26, with the current roster
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Celtics at Raptors

How the Celtics beat the Raptors

  1. Key scorerKey scorer: Kawhi LeonardLeonard (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 339 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (38%, league 35%).
  2. Take awayTake away the rim31.2% of Raptors shots come at the rim (8th most) and they make 67.7% (7th). The Celtics defense there ranks 7th (64.8% allowed).
  3. TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Raptors at 97.5 (22nd). Make it a half-court game.

How the Raptors beat the Celtics

  1. Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Raptors defense there ranks 2nd (33.7% allowed).
  2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Raptors shoot 44.1% from midrange (6th), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
  3. TempoPush the paceThe Raptors play at 97.5 possessions per 48 minutes (22nd in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
  4. Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
FG% by zone. Offense rank: 1st = best shooting. Defense rank: 1st = lowest FG% allowed, 30th = most.
ZoneBOS offenseTOR defenseTOR offenseBOS defense
At the rim70.5% (2nd)66.0% (15th)67.7% (7th)64.8% (7th)
Paint48.2% (3rd)44.5% (19th)43.6% (20th)41.4% (4th)
Midrange39.9% (21st)39.8% (7th)44.1% (6th)42.5% (21st)
Corner 341.8% (4th)38.6% (14th)38.6% (13th)36.2% (2nd)
Above-the-break 335.6% (10th)33.7% (2nd)34.1% (23rd)35.7% (24th)

02Matchups on Sat, Nov 14

5 games
  • Nuggets at Pelicans7:00 PM ET

    How the Nuggets beat the Pelicans

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Nuggets shoot 48.4% in the paint (2nd), and the Pelicans allow 47.9% there (28th of 30).
    2. TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.

    How the Pelicans beat the Nuggets

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Nikola JokicJokic (27.7 points per game): best from midrange (57% on 109 shots, league 42%), worst from above the break (37%, league 35%).
    2. AttackAttack the rim40.4% of Pelicans shots come at the rim (1st most), and the Nuggets allow 69.1% there (27th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Mavericks at Cavaliers7:30 PM ET

    How the Mavericks beat the Cavaliers

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
    2. TempoPush the paceThe Mavericks play at 101.1 possessions per 48 minutes (4th in pace), the Cavaliers at 99.1 (13th). Run and make them keep up.

    How the Cavaliers beat the Mavericks

    1. AttackAttack the paintThe Cavaliers shoot 47.8% in the paint (4th), and the Mavericks allow 45.5% there (24th of 30).
    2. AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Mavericks allow 42.7% there (23rd of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Pistons at Heat8:00 PM ET

    How the Pistons beat the Heat

    1. Key scorerKey scorer: Giannis AntetokounmpoAntetokounmpo (27.6 points per game): best at the rim (76% on 411 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (27%, league 42%).
    2. TempoSlow it downThe Pistons play at 98.3 possessions per 48 minutes (18th in pace), the Heat at 102.8 (1st). Make it a half-court game.

    How the Heat beat the Pistons

    1. TempoPush the paceThe Heat play at 102.8 possessions per 48 minutes (1st in pace), the Pistons at 98.3 (18th). Run and make them keep up.
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Nets at Grizzlies8:00 PM ET

    How the Nets beat the Grizzlies

    1. TurnoversTake care of the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th) and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).
    2. Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Nets defense there ranks 25th (46.6% allowed).

    How the Grizzlies beat the Nets

    1. AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Nets allow 46.6% there (25th of 30).
    2. TurnoversPressure the ballThe Grizzlies force turnovers on 12.8% of plays (8th), and the Nets give it away on 13.7% (29th of 30).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
  • Bulls at Timberwolves8:00 PM ET

    How the Bulls beat the Timberwolves

    1. AttackAttack the corner 312.0% of Bulls shots come from the corners (6th most), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).

    How the Timberwolves beat the Bulls

    1. AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Timberwolves shoot 36.5% from above the break (3rd), and the Bulls allow 36.6% there (29th of 30).
    2. Key scorerKey scorer: Norman PowellPowell (21.7 points per game): best in the paint (51% on 159 shots, league 44%), worst from the corners (33%, league 39%).

    Based on 2025-26, with the current roster

    Full preview →Full plan
How this works

Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.

  • Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
  • Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
  • Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
  • Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
  • Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).

Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.

What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.