Game plans · Monday, February 23
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Celtics at Lakers
How the Celtics beat the Lakers
- AttackAttack the rimThe Celtics shoot 70.5% at the rim (2nd), and the Lakers allow 70.5% there (29th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Luka DoncicDoncic (33.5 points per game): best at the rim (79% on 174 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
- Take awayTake away the paint21.5% of Lakers shots come in the paint (7th most) and they make 48.8% (1st). The Celtics defense there ranks 4th (41.4% allowed).
- AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Celtics shots come from midrange (8th most), and the Lakers allow 44.7% there (29th of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Lakers at 97.6 (21st). Make it a half-court game.
How the Lakers beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Lakers defense there ranks 10th (34.2% allowed).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 3The Lakers shoot 36.3% from above the break (6th), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Lakers shoot 44.4% from midrange (5th), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Lakers play at 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes (21st in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
| Zone | BOS offense | LAL defense | LAL offense | BOS defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 70.5% (2nd) | 70.5% (29th) | 73.4% (1st) | 64.8% (7th) |
| Paint | 48.2% (3rd) | 43.0% (9th) | 48.8% (1st) | 41.4% (4th) |
| Midrange | 39.9% (21st) | 44.7% (29th) | 44.4% (5th) | 42.5% (21st) |
| Corner 3 | 41.8% (4th) | 37.7% (8th) | 34.9% (29th) | 36.2% (2nd) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.6% (10th) | 34.2% (10th) | 36.3% (6th) | 35.7% (24th) |
Matchups on Mon, Feb 23
- Spurs at Pistons
How the Spurs beat the Pistons
- Key scorerKey scorer: Cade CunninghamCunningham (23.9 points per game): best from midrange (49% on 174 shots, league 42%), worst at the rim (61%, league 66%).
How the Pistons beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
- Kings at Grizzlies
How the Kings beat the Grizzlies
- AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Grizzlies allow 43.1% there (24th of 30).
- Take awayTake away the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most) and they make 45.9% (8th). The Kings defense there ranks 29th (48.7% allowed).
How the Grizzlies beat the Kings
- AttackAttack the paint22.1% of Grizzlies shots come in the paint (4th most), and the Kings allow 48.7% there (29th of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.0% of Grizzlies shots come from above the break (8th most), and the Kings allow 37.6% there (30th of 30).
- Jazz at Rockets
How the Jazz beat the Rockets
- Key scorerKey scorer: Kevin DurantDurant (26.0 points per game): best in the paint (59% on 393 shots, league 44%), worst from above the break (40%, league 35%).
- TempoPush the paceThe Jazz play at 101.6 possessions per 48 minutes (3rd in pace), the Rockets at 95.2 (29th). Run and make them keep up.
How the Rockets beat the Jazz
- AttackAttack the paint23.5% of Rockets shots come in the paint (2nd most), and the Jazz allow 48.8% there (30th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Lauri MarkkanenMarkkanen (26.7 points per game): best from the corners (43% on 76 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (29%, league 42%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.