Game plans · Monday, December 8
How each team beats its opponent. Where to attack, and what to take away.
Plan any matchup
Celtics at Cavaliers
How the Celtics beat the Cavaliers
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most), and the Cavaliers allow 36.1% there (25th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Donovan MitchellMitchell (27.9 points per game): best in the paint (55% on 309 shots, league 44%), worst at the rim (64%, league 66%). 39% on the left side, 45% on the right; push him left.
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Celtics shoot 41.8% from the corners (4th), and the Cavaliers allow 40.1% there (25th of 30).
- TempoSlow it downThe Celtics play at 94.2 possessions per 48 minutes (30th in pace), the Cavaliers at 99.1 (13th). Make it a half-court game.
How the Cavaliers beat the Celtics
- Take awayTake away the above-the-break 338.5% of Celtics shots come from above the break (1st most) and they make 35.6% (10th). The Cavaliers defense there ranks 25th (36.1% allowed).
- TempoPush the paceThe Cavaliers play at 99.1 possessions per 48 minutes (13th in pace), the Celtics at 94.2 (30th). Run and make them keep up.
- AttackAttack midrangeThe Cavaliers shoot 44.5% from midrange (4th), and the Celtics allow 42.5% there (21st of 30).
- AttackAttack the above-the-break 333.3% of Cavaliers shots come from above the break (7th most), and the Celtics allow 35.7% there (24th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Jayson TatumTatum (21.8 points per game): best from above the break (31% on 131 shots, league 35%), worst at the rim (62%, league 66%).
| Zone | BOS offense | CLE defense | CLE offense | BOS defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At the rim | 70.5% (2nd) | 62.6% (4th) | 67.2% (11th) | 64.8% (7th) |
| Paint | 48.2% (3rd) | 44.0% (13th) | 47.8% (4th) | 41.4% (4th) |
| Midrange | 39.9% (21st) | 42.4% (20th) | 44.5% (4th) | 42.5% (21st) |
| Corner 3 | 41.8% (4th) | 40.1% (25th) | 37.6% (18th) | 36.2% (2nd) |
| Above-the-break 3 | 35.6% (10th) | 36.1% (25th) | 35.4% (11th) | 35.7% (24th) |
Matchups on Mon, Dec 8
- Kings at Pacers
How the Kings beat the Pacers
- AttackAttack midrange15.1% of Kings shots come from midrange (1st most), and the Pacers allow 45.4% there (30th of 30).
- AttackAttack the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most), and the Pacers allow 47.1% there (27th of 30).
How the Pacers beat the Kings
- Take awayTake away the paint26.4% of Kings shots come in the paint (1st most) and they make 45.7% (9th). The Pacers defense there ranks 27th (47.1% allowed).
- AttackAttack midrange11.6% of Pacers shots come from midrange (7th most), and the Kings allow 43.7% there (27th of 30).
- Suns at Timberwolves
How the Suns beat the Timberwolves
- AttackAttack the corner 3The Suns shoot 39.6% from the corners (7th), and the Timberwolves allow 40.7% there (26th of 30).
- Key scorerKey scorer: Anthony EdwardsEdwards (28.8 points per game): best from the corners (46% on 54 shots, league 39%), worst from midrange (44%, league 42%).
How the Timberwolves beat the Suns
- AttackAttack the rimThe Timberwolves shoot 67.4% at the rim (8th), and the Suns allow 67.9% there (23rd of 30).
- TempoPush the paceThe Timberwolves play at 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes (9th in pace), the Suns at 96.3 (24th). Run and make them keep up.
- Spurs at Pelicans
How the Spurs beat the Pelicans
- TargetTarget this lineupWhen Bey, Murphy, McGowens, Fears and Queen share the floor (96 min), they allow 132.1 per 100, against 119.9 for the team: attack it.
- Key scorerKey scorer: Trey Murphy IIIMurphy (21.5 points per game): best from the corners (49% on 59 shots, league 39%), worst in the paint (38%, league 44%).
How the Pelicans beat the Spurs
- Key scorerKey scorer: Victor WembanyamaWembanyama (25.0 points per game): best at the rim (75% on 389 shots, league 66%), worst from midrange (39%, league 42%).
How this works
Each plan is a short list of rules applied to both teams' season numbers. Every item shows its numbers and ranks out of 30 so you can check it. At most 5 items per team, the biggest edges first.
- Attack: a shot zone where the team is good (top 10 in FG% or in share of its shots) and the opponent's defense there is bottom 8 in FG% allowed (bottom 10 if that finds fewer than 2).
- Take away: the opponent's favorite zone (top 5 in share, top 8 if fewer than 2 qualify) where they are also efficient (top 10 FG%), with the team's own defensive rank there.
- Target: of the opponent's 5 most-used lineups, the one that allows the most points per 100 possessions, with at least 100 possessions and at least 3 points worse than the team's own defensive rating. All 5 players must still be on the team.
- Key scorer: the opponent's top scorer on the current roster (100+ shots). Best and worst zones compare his FG% with the league average there (50+ shots per zone). A side lean shows only when he has 60+ shots on each side and a gap of 6+ points. Left and right are as our shot charts draw them (rim at the bottom), and shots at the rim are left out of the side split.
- Tempo and glass: a pace gap of 2+ possessions per 48 minutes; offensive rebounding, defensive rebounding and turnovers when one team is top 5 and the other bottom 5 (widened to 8 when fewer than 2 edges show up).
Data: team zones come from every counted regular season shot (made and missed; backcourt heaves left out; left and right corner 3s combined). Defense zones use the shots each team allowed. Lineups come from our play-by-play lineup stints. Before a team has played 10 games this season, its plan uses last season's numbers with today's roster, and lineups that no longer exist are skipped.
What it cannot see: there is no tracking data, so no defender distance, individual matchups or play types (pick and roll, isolation, post ups). Team zone numbers include every player a team used, even ones who have left. Injuries and rest are not in the plan, and season numbers can hide a recent change in form.