Last season (2025-26)

What changed?

Players whose game really moved: more minutes, a bigger role, a new shot diet. Each change comes with the likely reason and how much of it should hold.

StatTeam

The 2026-27 season does not have enough games yet, so this shows 2025-26: each player's last 25 games (or his games since a role change or a trade) against the rest of his season. Once players have about 20 games this season, the page switches to this season by itself.

Biggest real changes

279 of 393 players flagged

Showing 14 changes, biggest first (size after the "is it real?" pull). Clear filters

Jalen WilsonF · BKNPartly real

3-point rate-24 pts

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Before63%

After40%

Wilson's 3-point rate is down 24 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (40% vs 63%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out
New teammateMalachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG

Form Shots

Jalen WilsonF · BKNPartly real

Above-the-break 3 share-20 pts

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Before45%

After25%

Wilson's above-the-break 3 share is down 20 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (25% vs 45%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Also a new teammate: Malachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out
New teammateMalachi Smith joined the rotation on Mar 14 and played 23.9 MPG

Form Shots

Michael Porter Jr.F · BKNProbably real

TS%-7.2 pts

Last 25 games of the season vs the 27 games before

Before63.0%

After55.7%

Porter Jr.'s TS% is down 7.2 points over his last 25 games of the season (55.7% vs 63.0%). Most of it is shot-making: his TS% was 2.5 points below what his shot spots predict (5.6 points above before), with Cam Thomas gone. Probably real: about 70% should hold.

Shot-makingHis TS% was 2.5 points below what his shot spots predict (5.6 points above before) (about 100% of the change)
Teammate outCam Thomas (26 MPG before) left the team

Form Shots

Jalen WilsonF · BKNProbably real

Minutes+9.6

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Before13.8

After23.4

Wilson's playing time is up 9.6 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 10 (23.4 vs 13.8). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out (about 100% of the change)

Form Shots

Josh MinottF · BKNPartly real

Usage+8.2 pts

16 games with BKN vs the 33 games before

Before13.9%

After22.1%

Minott's usage is up 8.2 points over his 16 games with BKN (22.1% vs 13.9%). The likely reason: he moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26). Partly real: about 55% should hold.

New teamHe moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26)

Form Shots

Drake PowellF · BKNPartly real

Minutes+9.0

10 games since Mar 22 vs the 53 games before

Before19.5

After28.5

Powell's playing time is up 9.0 minutes a game over his 10 games since Mar 22 (28.5 vs 19.5). Most of it is a teammate's absence: Michael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 12 games, plus 3 more key players out, after he moved into the starting five. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (32 MPG before) missed all 12 games, plus 3 more key players out (about 100% of the change)
Starting roleHe started 9 of 10 games, up from 15 of 53 (about 48% of the change)

Form Shots

Noah ClowneyF · BKNPartly real

Minutes-9.4

9 games since Mar 9 vs the 57 games before

Before28.3

After18.9

Clowney's playing time is down 9.4 minutes a game over his 9 games since Mar 9 (18.9 vs 28.3). The likely reason: Chaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

New teammateChaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG

Form Shots

Jalen WilsonF · BKNProbably real

Points+6.0

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Before5.0

After11.0

Wilson's scoring is up 6.0 points a game over his 12 games since Mar 10 (11.0 vs 5.0). Much of it is playing time: his minutes went from 13.8 to 23.4 a game, with Michael Porter Jr. out. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

MinutesHis minutes went from 13.8 to 23.4 a game (about 59% of the change)
Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out
Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 12.2 to 15.9 (about 44% of the change)

Form Shots

Josh MinottF · BKNPartly real

Above-the-break 3 share+12 pts

16 games with BKN vs the 33 games before

Before36%

After48%

Minott's above-the-break 3 share is up 12 points over his 16 games with BKN (48% vs 36%). The likely reason: he moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26). Partly real: about 60% should hold.

New teamHe moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26)

Form Shots

Nicolas ClaxtonF-C · BKNProbably real

Minutes-7.2

12 games since Mar 9 vs the 57 games before

Before29.1

After21.9

Claxton's playing time is down 7.2 minutes a game over his 12 games since Mar 9 (21.9 vs 29.1). The likely reason: Chaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG. Probably real: about 60% should hold.

New teammateChaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG

Form Shots

Josh MinottF · BKNProbably real

Points+4.9

16 games with BKN vs the 33 games before

Before5.8

After10.8

Minott's scoring is up 4.9 points a game over his 16 games with BKN (10.8 vs 5.8). Most of it is shot volume: his shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.4, after his move to BKN. Probably real: about 65% should hold.

Shot volumeHis shots per 36 minutes (counting free throw trips) went from 10.1 to 15.4 (about 74% of the change)
New teamHe moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26)
MinutesHis minutes went from 15.9 to 19.2 a game (about 25% of the change)

Form Shots

Jalen WilsonF · BKNPartly real

Usage+6.0 pts

12 games since Mar 10 vs the 42 games before

Before16.4%

After22.3%

Wilson's usage is up 6.0 points over his 12 games since Mar 10 (22.3% vs 16.4%). The likely reason: Michael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out. Partly real: about half should hold.

Teammate outMichael Porter Jr. (33 MPG before) played only 1 of 18 games, plus 2 more key players out

Form Shots

Josh MinottF · BKNProbably real

3-point rate+9 pts

16 games with BKN vs the 33 games before

Before57%

After66%

Minott's 3-point rate is up 9 points over his 16 games with BKN (66% vs 57%). The likely reason: he moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26). Probably real: about 60% should hold.

New teamHe moved from BOS to BKN (first game Feb 26)

Form Shots

Noah ClowneyF · BKNPartly real

Points-4.8

9 games since Mar 9 vs the 57 games before

Before12.9

After8.1

Clowney's scoring is down 4.8 points a game over his 9 games since Mar 9 (8.1 vs 12.9). Most of it is playing time: his minutes went from 28.3 to 18.9 a game, after Chaney Johnson joined the rotation. Also shooting efficiency: his TS% went from 56.2% to 48.8%. Partly real: about 55% should hold.

MinutesHis minutes went from 28.3 to 18.9 a game (about 89% of the change)
EfficiencyHis TS% went from 56.2% to 48.8% (about 26% of the change)
New teammateChaney Johnson joined the rotation on Mar 9 and played 20.1 MPG

Form Shots

How this works

Windows

Every night we split each player's regular season (8+ games on each side) in one of three ways, in this order: the day he joined a new team; the game after which his minutes and usage shifted the most (a simple two-part split); or, if neither moved much, his last 10 games. Until the new season has enough games (about 20 each for most players) we use last season and its last 25 games, which catches the roles that changed at the trade deadline.

Is it big?

A change counts as big when it reaches:

Points: 4 points a game
Minutes: 5 minutes a game
Usage: 4 points
TS%: 4 points
3P%: 5 points
3-point rate: 8 points
Rim share: 8 points
Midrange share: 8 points
Corner-3 share: 8 points
Above-the-break 3 share: 8 points
Assists: 2 assists a game
Rebounds: 2.5 rebounds a game

Players need 15+ minutes a game on one side. Shooting needs 40+ threes or 60+ shots on each side.

Is it real?

Both windows are pulled toward the player's whole season by a fixed amount of weight M, the sample size where a stat is half skill and half luck: (window x n + season x M) / (n + M). A change is shown only if the pulled gap keeps at least half of the raw gap: Probably real keeps 60% or more, Partly real keeps 50 to 59%, anything less is Mostly noise and stays off the feed.

M values: 3P% 501 threes, TS% 218 shots and points 9.7 games, from Is it real?; minutes 9.4, usage 17, assists 18.9, rebounds 18.1, 3-point rate 13.9, rim share 18.2, midrange 16.8, corner 3 21.6 and above the break 15.4 games, measured on 1,766 pairs of back-to-back 10-game stretches in 2025-26. That is why 3P% changes almost never make it: threes are mostly luck until a player has taken hundreds.

Causes

Rules, each with a number. Points split exactly into minutes, shot volume and efficiency. Assists and rebounds split into minutes and per-minute rate. TS% and 3P% split into shot diet (league FG% from the spots he shot from) and shot-making (the rest). Context: a new team, a move into or out of the starting five (starting lineups from our stint data), key teammates (25+ minutes before) who missed most of the window, a new rotation player (20+ minutes), and opponents' defensive rating. We keep causes that explain 15%+ of the change and show the top three.

What we measured

Backtest on 2025-26: we ran this as if the season stopped on 3 dates and checked each flag against the rest of the season. Probably real changes kept 71% of their size on average (we predicted 66%) and 88% kept going the same way (301 flags). Partly real kept 60% (predicted 55%). Mostly noise kept 39% (predicted 33%), so the pull is a little cautious, which is the safe side.

Latest run: 393 players checked, 447 probably real and 180 partly real changes, and 273 big swings left out as mostly noise.

What it cannot see

Injuries a player played through, coaching decisions, matchups and schemes, and anything off the box score. Missing teammates are read from who played, not the injury report. Causes are rough splits, not proof; when nothing in our data fits we say so.